Lunchtime talk on Campaign ’08
For locals – next Wednesday the 11th at noon, I’ll be giving a talk on a polling geek’s view of Campaign ’08. It’s part of our Office of Information Technology’s Lunch ‘n’ Learn Series. Come on by!...
View ArticleObama’s signing…statement?
Today at 6:50pm ET, I’ll be on CNN’s Situation Room to talk about left-handed presidents and their brains. It might be re-broadcast tomorrow at 6:50am ET and/or 8:55am. I free-associated a bit – let’s...
View ArticleSenate race re-cap
Last year I recommended a donation strategy that nearly 400 of you followed to give nearly $45,000 to one side (and an unknown amount to the other side). Now that Al Franken is finally on his way to...
View ArticleOrly Taitz gets her court date
Back on the false-belief beat…sort of. I’ve previously written about false belief formation from the standpoint of neuroscience. A prominent category these days is the delusion, mostly on the right,...
View ArticleAt TEDxSF – Neuroscience and willpower
I’ll be coming to San Francisco next Tuesday for TEDxSF, a spinoff of the famous TED conference. It’s at the California Academy of Sciences. Mayor Gavin Newsom will launch the event. The event will be...
View Article“Forecasts,” snapshots, and predictions, 2012
Over at Matt Dickinson’s Presidential Power, there’s a discussion between him, Nate Silver, and others. I weighed in on the confusion between poll snapshots (what all aggregators do, including Nate...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008
An obvious comparison is to ask how Ryan performed compared with Sarah Palin, another running-mate intended to be a game-changer. As you can see, a major advantage of the Meta-analysis is that it...
View ArticleWho are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registered to vote, but who will actually schlep to the polls (or...
View ArticleEnvironmental lead (Pb) and crime
At Mother Jones, Kevin Drum has an in-depth article on the hypothesis that environmental lead is a likely root cause of the increase in crime a generation ago. Even more importantly, removal of lead...
View ArticleA draft of a paper on the Meta-analysis
Dear readers, I’ve been invited to write an academic article on the Meta-analysis. I’m horribly late with it…but I do have a draft. I’d be interested in your thoughts and reactions. I’m sure I have not...
View ArticleA look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014
My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have...
View ArticleThe predictive value of GOP Presidential polls
Tweet The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his...
View ArticleData scraping help (thank you!)
Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update:...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Realignment Myth
With a candidate as strange as Donald Trump, it is tempting to speculate that the usual red-state and blue-state assignments may not hold. Trump is probably not a leader of change in the Republican...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Second Phase of Realignment: 1976-2012
Shifts in American political geography (“realignments”), which I wrote about on Thursday, can be viewed at a glance using the following diagram. It allows us to see just how little change there has...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast
Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The incredibly stable 2016 campaign
Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot,...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite
Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable....
View ArticleClik here to view.
Some secrets are not dirty
Tweet Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%. In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response,...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test
Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization...
View Article
